Empty Tankers Are Extending Iran's Ability to Wait Out the U.S. Blockade
The U.S. Navy's blockade may be preventing Iran from moving much crude to market, but a small number of tankers in ballast have been leaking through, and the extra empty tank capacity appears to be extending the timeline before Iranian producers run out of storage. Previous independent estimates suggest that the full-storage date could come as early as this week, but the specialists at TankerTrackers.com believe that Iran has enough loitering tanker tonnage to keep pumping until mid-June - using floating storage alone.
"Empty tankers have been entering the perimeter. Depending on loading rate, Iran could handle another 4-6 weeks in tanker loadings provided no additional empty tankers arrive. Add to that, vacant storage capacity on shore," the consultancy said.
(Please note that the red lines on the map chronologically connect our satellite imagery sightings.)
The VLCC supertanker MALI (9229439) was placed under U.S. sanctions on 2024?12?03 specifically for violating sanctions on Iran. She has been transmitting transparently on AIS in… pic.twitter.com/D0RfLMjvv1
— TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) April 29, 2026
The estimate is far longer than other independent assessments. Kpler puts the timeline (combining all storage sources) towards late May. The Foundation for Defense of Democracy (FDD), an anti-regime think tank, had previously estimated that Iran would run out of storage within about 13 days of the onset of the U.S. Navy blockade. Those 13 days have passed, and the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) does not yet appear to be initiating costly and potentially damaging well shut-ins, but the blockade's pressure is real: Iranian officials have acknowledged that they are now reaching for worst-case midstream options, including export by rail (if possible) and reactivation of "junk" crude oil tanks. Retired VLCCs that might ordinarily be scrapped - like the 1997-built Nasha - are getting pressed into service as emergency floating storage, with the attendant risks of derelict tanker tonnage.
The timeline matters for forecasting the effects of the ongoing U.S. blockade. As long as the naval cordon continues to be effective in preventing full Iranian tankers from reaching market, it will cut of Iran's oil sales revenue, critical to the economy and the regime in Tehran. Once the blockade has gone on long enough that Iran's storage fills up, too, Iran's leadership will have to choose between making a deal with the U.S. for relief, or shutting in production and accepting some amount of damage and restart difficulties at oilfield wellheads.
Sources close to the White House indicate that President Donald Trump is leaning towards extending the blockade in order to continue to apply pressure on Iran; the other alternatives would be to restart open hostilities, in hopes of forcing Iran to capitulate, or declaring victory and withdrawing. In a signal of Pentagon priorities, the much-extended carrier USS Gerald R. Ford has been recalled from her station in the Red Sea and ordered to return to Norfolk, reducing the capabilities available in theater for high-end combat in order to allow the Navy to repair a key asset. Two other carriers remain in the region.
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As long as the cordon continues, Iran plans to counter with its own blockade on traffic to and from the Gulf states; that effort is holding back about 10 to 15 million barrels per day of crude from the world oil market, driving up prices.
Brent crude futures neared the $120 mark on Wednesday in expectation that the dueling blockades will continue. The prices are trickling down to the pump in the U.S., where the average price per gallon of gasoline is up by $1 year on year; diesel has risen by $2 per gallon compared to April 2025.
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