EIA Sees Weak Global Oil Demand Limiting Price Spike from Hormuz Disruption

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has lowered its outlook for global oil demand in 2026, saying weaker consumption could help cap oil price increases even as disruptions continue to restrict energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

In its June Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), released Tuesday, the EIA said global oil demand is expected to decline by 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) this year compared to 2025. The agency cited high fuel prices, reduced fuel availability, and government conservation measures, particularly across Asia, as key factors behind the drop.

The forecast comes as shipping and energy markets continue to