According to prediction market traders, commercial operations in the Strait of Hormuz will remain disrupted for the remaining part of 2026.
Latest data from the trading platform Kalshi shows there is a 66% chance that normal traffic flow in Hormuz will not return before January 2027.
Just two weeks ago, traders predicted a 66% chance that traffic would normalise before August, but those odds have now plummeted to 21%.
The market sees normal traffic as a 7-day moving average of over 60 ships passing through the strait.
The prediction comes after Iran and Israel launched missile strikes at each other’s assets and infrastructure on Sunday, breaking the ceasefire established in April.
Iran attacked northern Israel after accusing it of violating the truce by repeatedly attacking Lebanon.
Israel retaliated by launching large-scale strikes against strategic Iranian defence systems.
President Donald Trump has said that the Hormuz Strait could remain blocked through Labour Day. “I think it could be, but I think it’s unlikely,” Trump stated during an Oval Office briefing.
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