Assessing Nasdaq (NDAQ) Valuation After SEC Approval For Bitcoin Index Options And New AI Initiatives
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Nasdaq (NDAQ) recently received U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approval to list cash-settled Bitcoin index options under the QBTC ticker, placing regulated crypto-linked derivatives alongside its broader technology and data businesses.
See our latest analysis for Nasdaq.
The latest SEC approval for QBTC options and a series of AI related and research launches come against a mixed price backdrop, with the share price down 10.28% year to date, while a 3 year total shareholder return of 76.78% points to longer term momentum.
If Bitcoin linked products and market structure changes are on your radar, this may be a useful moment to broaden your search and scan 20 cryptocurrency and blockchain stocks
With the stock down 10.28% year to date but showing a 76.78% total return over three years, plus fresh crypto and AI initiatives, you have to ask: is there still upside on the table, or is future growth already priced in?
Most Popular Narrative: 18.5% Undervalued
Compared to the last close at $86.72, the most followed narrative points to a fair value of $106.47, putting Nasdaq in clear undervalued territory on those assumptions.
The analysts have a consensus price target of $106.47 for Nasdaq based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $120.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $82.0.
Want to see what kind of earnings path and margin profile justify that higher value, and how long run growth feeds into the model assumptions? The full narrative lays out the revenue trajectory, profit mix, and future P/E that have to line up for $106.47 to make sense.
Result: Fair Value of $106.47 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, this narrative can be knocked off course if regulatory changes around cloud migration or tokenization tighten, or if competition in listings and fintech pressures margins.
Find out about the key risks to this Nasdaq narrative.
Another View: Is The Valuation Already Full?
Analysts see upside from $86.72 to $106.47 using earnings forecasts and a 31.7x P/E, yet Simply Wall St estimates future cash flows at $82.31, which would imply the stock is trading above that value. If cash generation is the anchor, is the optimism a stretch?
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